A psychologist and group of applied mathematicians have created a mathematical model that they say can predict which couples will divorce with high accuracy. Psychologist John Gottman and applied mathematicians James D. Murray and Kristin Swanson teamed up to develop a model which Gottman says finally brings mathematics into social psychology. Specifically, Gottman said in a gizmag.com article that this model could help marriage counselors and therapists help couples avoid types of interactions which could lead to divorce.

So how does the model work? Gottman said that the model was developed by collecting data from hundreds of married couples during videotaped conversations about some issue of debate in their relationship. Physiological data like pulse rates were also collected and analyzed. The key behind the whole study was quantifying the ratio of positive to negative interactions during the conversation. As an example, Gottman described a situation in which a couple could be arguing but using positive interactions like jokes and laughter rather than negative interactions like screaming and yelling.

The researchers said that the magic ratio of positive-to-negative interactions is 5:1 and added that couples may fall into trouble when falling below this ratio. The mathematical model then charts this interaction into what the researchers have described as a “Dow-Jones Industrial Average for marital conversation.” Gottman added that the math is so visual and graphical that it actually allows researchers to visualize what happens when two people talk to each other.

According to the researchers, this model is so interpretative and predictive that it will allow researches to simulate what couples may do under different circumstances, especially when behavior changes. The gizmag.com article provided another example in which a change in behavior occurs when a husband allows himself to be influenced by his wife during a conversation. According to Gottman, the model will be able to predict how this change in behavior affects the types of ensuing interactions, and thus allow therapists (or even divorce lawyers) to do little experiments with couples to help them strengthen their relationships.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 2nd, 2007 at 4:08 am and is filed under Divorce Law. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.